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The winds on the back side of Erin are still strong! We just had our doormat blown into the house, and a dog bowl was sent flying across the floor! We haven't closed the doors though!😂

Here in Santo Domingo it was almost nothing, as expected. 

Looks like next one will miss us entirely but the one after that we need to watch.

@planner

Great advice; thank you,  I, as many, also use the NOAA website for latest updates, and the spaghetti model site you provided last year.

Be safe and alert.

I have recently seen Hispaniola referred to as the hurricane "Donut Hole" of the Caribbean. Statistically we take few direct hits. This is for at least two reasons. One, the Mona passage between DR and Puerto Rico is a very turbulent area of the ocean and helps nudge storms a bit north. I am not a meteorologist or geologist so I can't tell you why that happens but I'll take it!  The other reason is the DR is quite mountainous and hurricanes don't like mountains. Pico Duarte is 3100 meters high.

So, when we get nervous about these storms at least we have this going for us.  😎

One of the biggest reasons - the island of Puerto Rico!  When storms make contact with PR they are nudged north or south and diverted around us.

First time I have heard of the Mona Passage being a reason. I have to look ok into that now.

Quick read is that the Mona Passage only helps keep storms off the north coast.  It steers them away. No impact for storms coming from the south.  It  seems this comes originally from a blog post of a hotel near Cabarete.  I find this fascinating and will continue to read

Yes I have no idea why the Mona passage would steer hurricanes. Just something I read a while back. The water is very turbulent there I know.

Apparently it has strong currents but that's only surface level effect on hurricanes.  I am trying to find more info. 

Colder water temperatures can slow a hurricane down, but I don't know if the water in the Mona Passage is colder than the surrounding ocean (just because it's turbulent) ... or even if so, if it's a big enough area for its temperature to affect a hurricane. Maybe! That (temperature) is the only way I've ever heard that the ocean can affect the wind.

Most of the websites I saw that offered the Mona Passage theory were real estate sites. I couldn't find a news- or science-oriented site that confirmed it. But I only had a quick look so there could be more out there.

I'm reading a marine biology textbook right now (to tide me over till I can get out there and see actual manatees and turtles, or at least be in their general vicinity!), and I get the impression that wind affects ocean currents much more than vice versa.

Would definitely be interested in hearing more about this.

Actually ocean temperatures and global currents are the main drivers of weather systems. That’s why hurricanes develop at the end of summer. Just like mountain areas the Mona passage could divert or weaken some of it (in a different way) but the effect would not be major on the large scale. All the variations that can occur is what predicting weather makes a hard job.

@wondering9

I have done a deeper dive and cannot find anything related to the Mona Passage that doesn't connect to real estate or tourism on the north coast!

I will suggest then there is very little validity in it!

That said it is true that historically the north coast has seen few strong storms up until the last maybe 5 years.  It is geography, mountains and prevailing upper level steering winds making it protected.  That seems to be shifting?  Time will tell.

Storm update - the next storm headed our way will deviate north before Puerto Rico.

The one after that has a chance of development.  It is south east of us and moving west. It is still a ways away so we have time to watch.

Our "busy season" for storms is August 15 to Oct 15!  Time for all of us to be aware of what's happening.

As Planner said in another thread yesterday,

Anyone contacting any services or lawyers in Santo Domingo, those offices are all closed today, possibly tomorrow as well due to this storm.

Stay safe, people!

For a non-hurricane, Melissa is a scary storm, and it's moving very slowly (the worst scenario for flooding). Closures have been extended to today (Friday). The red-alert provinces are listed at the top of this article:

This storm is doing damage here in the DR. She is actually closer today than she was yesterday.  She is just hanging around and sucking up energy from overheated waters.

Several provinces are on red alert and those provinces are on shutdown, only essential services. 

Currently it's very quiet, totally overcast. We have light rain that will build later today.  We have so much flooding all along the south coast.

Steady rain falling in La Romana since dawn. Red alert in place. No employees in the stores or shops. We are moving sand bags into place at certain places around the villa to divert water flow off the roof away from structure.....

Steady rain since about 10 here with waves of torrential rains! Lots more on the way.

Everyone stay safe!