禁漫天堂

Climate visas for people threatened by disasters

In 1973, the speculative novel Japan Sinks (La submersion du Japon) by Komatsu Saky艒 caused a stir. The author imagines Japan overwhelmed by natural catastrophes. Secret negotiations unfold with other countries鈥擜ustralia among them鈥攖o rescue the population. Translated into several languages and adapted into TV series, films, anime, and manga, the bestseller continues to spark debate. The latest adaptations have toned down nationalist overtones to foreground diversity and the need for cooperation among people and between states. Reality, it seems, is edging closer to fiction. The disasters striking the archipelago are forcing authorities and citizens to reflect. While climate migration isn't on the table for Japan, many are asking how to shield the country from natural hazards. Other nations, however, are already operating in 鈥渃limate migration鈥� mode.

Climate migration: A reality in Tuvalu

Tuvalu and Australia have officially announced their climate migration agreement鈥攁 first, says Australia. The treaty, finalized in May 2024, allows Tuvaluan nationals to obtain a climate visa. It will be open to people with disabilities or health conditions; the Australian government acknowledges these groups are often excluded from visa programs. However, New Zealand citizens are not eligible, as the scheme prioritizes those without a fallback option. Tuvalu is among the nations most threatened by climate change. According to NASA, a large share of its infrastructure could be underwater by 2050.

Quotas and relocation aid

Under the treaty, 280 visas will be issued each year. That's far fewer than the number of applicants: roughly 8,750 Tuvaluans (out of 11,000) entered the lottery launched on July 18. In other words, 80% of the population hopes to secure a visa鈥攏ot to leave in haste, but to ensure their safety. The visa allows free movement between Australia and Tuvalu, and gives holders the right to work and study in Australia. A random selection has been underway since July 25. Australia's Home Affairs Ministry concedes there won't be room for everyone. The ministry also guarantees support to help Tuvalu adapt to climate risks. The treaty maintains Tuvalu's status as an independent state, though questions remain about how that independence can be exercised over the long term.

Climate migration: what are other states proposing?

Will we see more climate migration programs? For now, the issue resonates far more in Pacific island regions than elsewhere: 90% of people there are concerned about climate displacement, compared with fewer than 50% of Americans. Australia hopes its initiative will become a model. The Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Kiribati鈥攅ach threatened by rising seas鈥攚ant a similar program. For the time being, the Maldives are building artificial islands such as Hulhumal茅, which sits two meters above sea level. Experts still view this as a fragile solution.

United States

The United States has signed several Compacts of Free Association with countries threatened by submersion: the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Micronesia. Under these agreements, citizens of those states may live and work freely in the U.S., but they have limited access to social benefits. Another obstacle: the current U.S. president's skepticism about climate urgency. In March 2025, Palau's president, Surangel Whipps Jr., called out Donald Trump and denounced the U.S. lack of commitment.

Argentina and India

In 2023, Argentina launched a humanitarian visa targeting Latin American nationals forced to leave their homes because of a climate disaster. In India, Australia's climate visa has sparked ideas. Some in government suggest that creating an Indian climate visa could be an effective way to burnish the country's international image鈥攁nd a channel for recruiting foreign talent.

New Zealand

In 2017, New Zealand rolled out a program to welcome climate migrants from the Pacific. The initiative was rejected by the communities concerned, who criticized New Zealand's policy and pressed the government to strengthen its decarbonization measures to curb pollution at the source.

Uganda and partner countries

Africa is directly threatened by climate change. Warming temperatures and floods are forcing millions to leave their homes. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), there have been 220 million internal displacements over the past ten years. To respond to the climate emergency, several African states adopted the Kampala Ministerial Declaration (named after Uganda's capital) on migration, the environment, and climate change in 2022. It builds on a series of conventions (1951, 1969, 2009, and others) designed to support displaced populations while granting legal protection. The challenge now is ensuring states implement these commitments.

Moving toward a climate passport?

The World Bank estimates there could be 216 million climate migrants by 2050. What if the answer were to open borders? In October 2023, the German government under Chancellor Scholz considered introducing a climate passport and a climate visa. The idea isn't new. Back in 2018, German experts argued for a climate passport reserved for citizens of territories at risk of disappearing.

The climate disasters of recent years have revived the debate, including in France, which is still grappling with the aftermath of Cyclone Chido鈥攁 storm that hit the island of Mayotte on December 14, 2024. The problem is that a climate passport is far from a consensus solution. Climate urgency collides with political calculations and an accelerating trend toward tighter borders. Far-right movements oppose such a passport, warning it would create a 鈥減ull factor.鈥� Proponents counter by recalling states' responsibilities: the biggest polluters are often the least affected by natural disasters. Some in Tuvalu share that view, arguing that Australia bears responsibility for marine pollution.

Climate migrants: A new kind of refugee?

Should we talk about 鈥渃limate refugees鈥�? Australia says no. The country is adamant that its climate visa must not be confused with refugee status, which is granted only to people persecuted in their home country; that status gives them the right to asylum elsewhere. Climate migrants are not being persecuted. Yet the term 鈥渃limate refugee鈥� has already entered international discourse to describe people forced to leave their country because of political disruption (as the article puts it), even though the expression has no legal value. And that, precisely, is where the controversy lies.

Should there be a legal status for climate migrants?

Opponents say no, noting that most people on the move relocate within their own country. International law does not recognize 鈥渃limate refugees,鈥� and the expression is seen as a misnomer. Others point to cases like Tuvalu鈥攚hich is far from unique鈥攁nd argue that creating a legal status would help preserve a people's identity, culture, and history.

This is one of the debates raised in Japan Sinks: People of Hope, a recent TV adaptation of Komatsu Saky艒's novel that aired in late 2021. To preserve culture and social ties among displaced communities, policymakers in the story turn to digital solutions. Will fiction become reality in Tuvalu? In 2023, the state floated the idea of 鈥渢ransposing itself鈥� into the metaverse to safeguard its culture. It's a strategy with strengths, but also limits (including the environmental footprint of digital technology). A perfectly green solution is complex to come by. Even so, states recognize that climate migration is likely to become one of the defining challenges of the coming years.

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